# Why Bitcoin Bear Markets All End the Same Way

*And Why This One Isn’t Done Yet*

By [Dadsdefispace.base.eth](https://paragraph.com/@daddefispace), 2026-02-03

technical, analysis, crypto, bitcoin, trading, market, cycles

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_DADS DeFi Space · TEchnical Anlysis and MArket Cycle Class_
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For anyone still unsure where we are in the cycle, let’s slow this down and zoom out.

Not emotionally.  
Not narratively.  
Structurally.

Because Bitcoin has already shown us this movie before the last 3 cycles. (Yes we still beleieve in the 4 year cycle here).

* * *

**The Bitcoin Bear Market Playbook (History Doesn’t Lie)**
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In **every prior Bitcoin bear market**, price has followed a remarkably similar sequence. Different headlines, different catalysts — same structure.

The order matters:

1.  **Price breaks the Bull Market Support Band**  
    This is usually where optimism first cracks.
    
2.  **The 50-Week Moving Average is lost**  
    Momentum shifts. Bounces turn into relief rallies.
    
3.  **Price chops around the 100-Week Moving Average**  
    This is the “hope phase” — volatile, frustrating, indecisive.
    
4.  **Final capitulation toward the 200-Week Moving Average**  
    Not always violent. Often slow. Exhausting. Boring.
    

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/3de1f22d7bdcc864cf3f73341d82a99897e0024440c472590f4619d690b439c8.png)

That sequence isn’t theory.  
It’s math, liquidity, and psychology repeating.

And right now?

Bitcoin is **doing it again**.

* * *

**This Time Feels Different… Because It Always Does**
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Notice what _isn’t_ happening:

*   No full-blown panic yet
    
*   No total collapse
    
*   No universal capitulation
    

Instead, Bitcoin is **grinding lower**, not crashing.

That’s actually typical.

Bear markets don’t end when people are scared.  
They end when people are **tired**.

Tired of waiting.  
Tired of hoping.  
Tired of buying dips that don’t bounce.

That’s usually when the final leg completes.

* * *

**What the Structure Suggests (Not a Prediction)**
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Based on historical structure alone — not hype, not vibes — the math points toward a **$58k–$65k zone** as a realistic area of interest.

Possibly lower.

That doesn’t mean it _must_ happen.  
It means it’s **structurally reasonable**.

And that’s not what most people want to hear.

But markets don’t exist to make us comfortable.

* * *

**The Real End of a Bear Market**
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Bear markets don’t end when bulls are loud.

They end when:

*   the last bull is exhausted
    
*   conviction turns into apathy
    
*   “long-term holder” becomes “I don’t care anymore”
    

That’s when supply finally transfers.

That’s when opportunity quietly shows up.

* * *

**Why I Share This (Process Over Predictions)**
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This isn’t a call to short.  
It’s not a call to panic sell.  
It’s not financial advice.

It’s a reminder to:

*   manage risk
    
*   stop forcing narratives
    
*   respect market structure
    
*   build a plan that survives multiple cycles
    

If you don’t have a plan for sideways and down markets, you don’t actually have a plan.

* * *

### 📌 Save the chart.

Not because I’m right — but because **structure repeats**.

You’ll thank yourself later.

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* * *

**Stay Connected (Optional, Always)**
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If you want to learn how I think through markets **in real time**, here are a few places to plug in — no pressure:

💬 **Free Telegram (market context + discussion)**  
[https://t.me/DADSDefiSpace](https://t.me/DADSDefiSpace)

🎓 **Free DeFi Course (start here if you’re still learning mechanics)**  
[https://www.dadsdefispace.org/challenges](https://www.dadsdefispace.org/challenges)

👨‍🏫 **X / Twitter (daily thoughts, charts, process)**  
[https://x.com/cryptozone1013](https://x.com/cryptozone1013)

💬 **Farcaster (Web3-native discussion)**  
[https://farcaster.xyz/thecaptain1013](https://farcaster.xyz/thecaptain1013)

📲 **Base App Profile (on-chain presence)**  
[https://base.app/profile/dadsdefispace  
](https://base.app/profile/dadsdefispace👉)👉 Join on Base: [https://base.app/invite/dadsdefispace/62YVZ0B3](https://base.app/invite/dadsdefispace/62YVZ0B3)

📰 **Web3 Newsletter (this journal lives here)**  
[https://paragraph.com/@daddefispace](https://paragraph.com/@daddefispace)

* * *

**Community & On-Chain Experiments**
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🪙 **$DADSDEFISPACE — Creator Coin on Base (experimental, not an investment)**  
Contract: `0x11c77e7a39c80e00f1c15bfb5f394e7b7e9a50c6`  
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* * *

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(Use only if appropriate. Risk always comes first.)

* * *

### Final Reminder

This is an **educational market journal**.  
Not financial advice.  
Markets are experimental.  
Everything is subject to change.

Stay skeptical.  
Stay patient.  
Stay on-chain.

— Kevin  
**DADS DeFi Space**

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*Originally published on [Dadsdefispace.base.eth](https://paragraph.com/@daddefispace/why-bitcoin-bear-markets-all-end-the-same-way)*