# DADS DEFI NEW YEARS EVE UPDATE *End of Year Market Thoughts: Markets, Macro, and What I’m Watching Into 2026* By [Dadsdefispace.base.eth](https://paragraph.com/@daddefispace), 2026-01-01 bitcoin, technicalanalysis, ethereum, altcoins, base, zora, aerodrome, aero, ethbtc --- ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/87b67a59cca473495ca80feeba44055ce589d7690dd4786f161816dbee0f93be.png) **A Message to the DADS DEFI SPACE Community** ---------------------------------------------- To everyone in the **DADS DEFI SPACE** community, I want to wish you blessings and a Happy New Year. As 2025 comes to a close, this feels like the right moment to step back—not just to look at markets, but to reflect on the path that brought us here. * * * **How Dadsdefispace Began — and What It’s Becom(ing)** ------------------------------------------------------ Dadsdefispace started as a small idea shared in real time: learning together, trading transparently, questioning narratives, and staying honest about uncertainty. Over time, that idea turned into something tangible. Today, it’s a legitimate LLC, a recognized brand, and a growing presence across Web3—especially on Base—where outreach, education, and experimentation are accelerating. * * * **2025 Was About Building, Not Perfection** ------------------------------------------- This year wasn’t about perfection. It was about building infrastructure—purpose, community, and presence. We used trading to help fund the early stages of our creator token, expanded into crypto education with a **free DeFi and crypto class**, launched a creator token on Zora, and laid groundwork that doesn’t always show up in P&L but matters deeply as we move into the next phase of the cycle. * * * **This Is a Market Check-In — Not a Prediction** ------------------------------------------------ This is my end-of-year market check-in. It’s not a prediction piece, and it’s not a victory lap. It’s a grounded look at where markets stand as we close out 2025—and how I’m thinking about positioning, risk, and opportunity heading into 2026. As always, this is about context and conviction. * * * **Bitcoin: Compression Before Resolution** ------------------------------------------ Bitcoin is ending the year the way it often does before major moves—compressed. Price is hovering just under $89,000, volatility is building, and this kind of structure rarely resolves quietly. Direction is intentionally unclear, with liquidity sitting on both sides—an environment designed to trap emotional traders. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/de532c3a0754a7c7105ce051fb9f94e6dbdc838aef2ca40f6159c1db16d96399.png) ### **Key Bitcoin Levels I’m Watching** * **$91K–$93K:** Heavy resistance aligned with the Fibonacci golden pocket and upside liquidity * **$85K–$86K:** Dense downside liquidity likely to be swept * **$102K–$104K:** Macro resistance zone where bull traps have formed in past cycles Bitcoin remains coiled in a broad **$80K–$94K range**. Momentum is neutral, liquidity hunts are likely in both directions, and patience matters more than prediction. In this environment, BTC remains the market’s anchor and the safest relative exposure. * * * **Ethereum: Structural Weakness vs Bitcoin** -------------------------------------------- Ethereum continues to lag Bitcoin structurally. ETH must reclaim and hold the **50-week EMA around $3,000** to reestablish bullish momentum. Until then, rallies should be treated cautiously. ### **ETH/BTC Context** ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/ed37036cca9bcbf823aae4110204a56b570485294073bc9374a059fa6795c880.png) * Lower highs continue to print * Capital still favors Bitcoin dominance * ETH underperformance is a signal, not noise Ethereum remains a core long-term asset—but **timing and position sizing matter** right now. * * * **Technical Analysis & Market Cycles** -------------------------------------- My framework relies heavily on long-term moving averages and cycle structure. ### **Key Indicators** * **50-Week MA:** Losing it often signals the start of a bear phase * **200-Week MA (~$60K):** Tests or reclaims historically mark cycle bottoms ### **Cycle Outlook** * Crypto continues to respect the **four-year cycle** * Expectation: a **shorter bear market** this time * Potential macro + crypto bottom: **mid-2026** This aligns with broader liquidity tightening followed by eventual easing. * * * **Portfolio Positioning & Altcoins** ------------------------------------ ### **De-Risked / Underperforming** * Render * Beam * Pendle * Jupiter * Stacks These positions failed to outperform Bitcoin or maintain conviction and were sold or trimmed. ### **Current Focus** * **Bitcoin:** Primary conviction * **Ethereum:** Secondary, actively managed exposure The strategy moving forward is simple: **fewer positions, higher conviction**. * * * **Creator Tokens & DeFi Participation** --------------------------------------- Active involvement continues in creator token ecosystems, particularly Zora—but the risks are real. ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/786050442537eb80cf40c9fec0d46047b3ff625a2ea9bd2df9513130646398f9.jpg) ### **Key Risks** * Extreme volatility * Rug pulls still happen * Many tokens down 70–90% ### **Approach** * Diversify across creators * Align with long-term value, not hype * Treat creator tokens like **venture bets**, not investments ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/9b16885334f43ffd8f9d35ef6f8aa581188874c19b65b5fd084dbca04dc7edc3.jpg) * * * **Positioning & Market Sentiment** ---------------------------------- Market sentiment is split. Longs and shorts are relatively balanced, which often leads to fakeouts before real direction emerges. For transparency: * Short **ZORA** and **SOL** * Long **ETH**, catching the dip near $2,775 My base case is that Bitcoin tests the lower end of the range before any sustained upside, while altcoins continue to bleed—punctuated by sharp recovery bounces that historically trap retail. For non-professional traders, this environment is brutal. It’s emotional, messy, and engineered to extract capital. We took a hit trying to long the bottom on ZORA and got wrecked. That’s part of the reality. * * * **Macro Backdrop: Growth on Paper, Stress in Reality** ------------------------------------------------------ 2025 was a strange year economically. On paper, growth and cooling inflation looked fine. In reality, stress was everywhere: rising unemployment, collapsing savings rates, record credit card debt, and persistent negative sentiment. Despite positive headlines, more than half of Americans felt like the country was already in recession. Living in a working-class community, I see that disconnect every day. * * * **Looking Ahead to 2026** ------------------------- Wall Street remains broadly bullish—but with far less conviction. I believe 2026 may be the year where the gap between markets and the real economy finally gets tested in a way that reshapes sentiment for the next cycle. * * * **Wrapping Up 2025 — and What Comes Next** ------------------------------------------ As the year closes, several things stand out: * Bitcoin is compressed; fakeouts are likely * $91K remains heavy resistance * $102K–$104K may act as a bull trap * Economic stress is real beneath the surface On the business side, 2025 was about turning momentum into structure—formalizing the LLC, expanding Web3 outreach on Base, keeping education free, and experimenting with creator economics. There’s still a lot to build. I see 2026 as a year of execution—where groundwork meets opportunity, and where flexibility, risk management, and conviction matter more than being right. That’s the game. Take it or leave it. I hope you’ll join us for the ride. — **Kevin** ![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/d1ff3cfff8992d97bb59676607c7503a8394f5e1046f1246767d49aa623900ee.jpg) --- *Originally published on [Dadsdefispace.base.eth](https://paragraph.com/@daddefispace/dads-defi-new-years-eve-update)*